Narrow Trump Victory Scenario This was presented in the New York Times as a possible scenario, where Trump could win with a razor thin election, not seen since Bush v. Gore in 2000. Note that this scenario has Democrats winning in some of the key swing states where Clinton lost - Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump would win Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. Right now, these states are either leaning Republican or toss up, so Trump could win all three. Arizona and Florida are toss ups in some predictions and lean Democrat in others. If Trump wins Nevada and New Hampshire, this would definitely be a surprise as these are generally likely Democratic states. This scenario assumes the two Congressional Districts, NE-2 and ME-2, will go Republican, adding 2 electoral votes to his total, and becoming re-elected by just one electoral vote. However, NE-2 is slightly favored to go Democratic and should that happen, we would have a tied election (269-269). I don't want even to think about a possible tie and all the ramifications. Recounts will be difficult and slow in many states with many mail-in ballots, but there are strict deadlines for certifying winners. I posted on September 13, another tie scenario. My simulation model predicts the chance of a tie vote is 0.4% down from 1.0% before the primary. Let's hope we do not have a tie. David Lord Oct 14, 2020
|
Click the map to create your own at